AN ASSERTION
The winnable Senate races should be a high priority for many from now until the general election.
Argument: The UN has declared that the world must reduce its GHG emissions by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 in order to keep global temperature below 1.5 C degree increase, i.e.to prevent the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.
From VOX "Under the Paris climate agreement, nations set a goal of limiting warming to 3.6°F, or 2 °C, increase in global average temperatures, with ambitions of a stricter limit of 2.7°F, or 1.5°C of warming. The UN asked the IPCC to figure out what it would take to hit the 1.5°C target, and what’s in store for the world if we did pull it off.
The team pooled more than 6,000 scientific publications, drew contributions from 133 authors, and had more than 1,000 scientists review the findings.
As expected, the report doesn’t pull any punches: Staying at or below 1.5°C requires slashing global greenhouse gas emissions 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050. “
US total GHG in 2010 was about 7 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent. In 2018 it was 6.7 billion tons. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2020-02/documents/us-ghg-inventory-2020-chapter-executive-summary.pdf
Estimated reduction in 2019 was 2.1%. https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2019/
Applying 2.1% to 6.678 means an estimated .14 reduction with the resultant 6.538 at start of 2020.
Cutting 2010 levels of 6.979 billion tons by 45% is a cut of 3.14 billion tons meaning the 2030 target for the US is 3.84 billion tons.
Subtracting: 6.54 billion tons (current) minus 3.84 billion tons (target) = 2.7 billion tons reduction needed over 2020 to 2029 or .27 billion per year, which equates to 4.1% reduction per year.
From the high point in 2005 of 7.790 billion tonnes to 2018 of 6.678 is a drop of 1.112 billion over 14 years. That is a drop of 14.3% over 14 years or 1% per year, a long ways from the 4.1% reduction needed.
In 2009 there was a 6.3% reduction due to the Great Recession. The pandemic has gotten us off to a great start in 2020.
Many think there is no way to hit the target without huge improvements in negative emissions---carbon dioxide removal. But there are huge hurdles in bringing these technologies to scale. https://www.vox.com/2018/10/8/17948832/climate-change-global-warming-un-ipcc-report
All of the challenges in meeting the 2030 target argue for big reductions starting immediately as well as massive geoengineering research, development, test, engineering and prototyping ASAP for fallback insurance.
However reduction targets are to be met, a Green New Deal level of effort must be passed at the Federal level which will require total control by Democrats. The Dems will retain House control and God willing get the Presidency. But Republicans have given every indication that in the Senate they will stop the climate legislation that is required, meaning it will be too difficult to achieve the 45% reduction. If the Republicans block climate legislation until Jan 2025 then there will be only 5 years left to get a 45% reduction and, assuming not much reduction or increase is done between 2020 and early 2025, that means a 9% per annum reduction in GHGs will be required from 2025 to start of 2030.Not very likely.
So we must win Senate control. Either by gaining 4 seats or 3 seats and the Vice Presidency. https://americanunionist.com/2018/12/08/democrats-can-win-the-senate-in-2020-by-targeting-these-7-seats/
The importance of beating Ernst.
Here is the Cook report for all Senate races https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
The Dems are defending 12 seats and have to watch MI –(D)Peters leans D and Al –(D) Jones leans R
The R’s are defending 23 seats : This Newsweek article give an overview of the tossup and leaning races to watch. https://www.newsweek.com/top-senate-races-watch-2020-1495769
Cook ratings 4 toss ups AZ McSally ME Collins
CO Gardner NC Tillis
Roll Call says CO leans Dem.
I will make a simplifying assumption. That Biden wins and thus a net gain of 3 Senate sits is required for a majority. Given that Jones in Alabama does not look good https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alabama-senate/alabama-senate-moves-toss-lean-republican, that means all 4 races above are critical. We can’t hope Dems will get a break on the leaning R races I will cover later.
A note on KY Mitch vs McGrath: Cook rates this likely R, Sadly. https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/07/mcgrath-bests-mcconnell-in-2020-fundraising-so-far-but-senate-leader-has-plenty-of-cash/
AZ McSally vs Mark Kelly Recent poll had Kelly up 6 points.
CO Garner vs Hickenlooper. Gardner has low approval 36%.
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/06/ratings-change-senate-races-shift-toward-democrats/
ME Collins vs Gideon Leans Collins according to Politico: https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/senate/maine/ Collis won 67% of the vote in 2014. Gideon and Collins tied in some current polls, and Gideon slightly ahead in others.
NC Tillis vs Cunningham https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/490450-north-carolina-senate-race-emerges-as-2020-bellwether
4 Races leaning R KS Open
MT Daines
GA Loeffler
IA Ernst
MT Gov Bullock (D) entry moved the race from solid to lean R.
IA Ernst vs Greenfield Greenfield funding good. Not easy to win this. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/491690-democrats-target-ernst-in-bid-to-expand-senate-map
GA Loeffler vs TBD Special Election June 9th . Loeffler’s trading on the pandemic may hurt her. Who is the strongest Dem opponent ? and what are their chances of being elected ?https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia,_2020
KS Senator Pat Roberts retired. Could be Kolback against Bollier. Who would be the strongest Dem opponent ? and what would be their chances of being elected ?
Summary: Any support (money or time) to the usually recognized 4 tossup states of CO, AZ, ME, and NC would be worthwhile.
Dems in ME and NC need more cash, esp Cunningham in NC.
Senate polls: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/